Right on schedule, Alex Rodriguez hit career home run number 599 last night for the Yankees versus the Kansas City Royals. Since the All-Star break, A-Rod has hit one home run every third game, and if he keeps up the pace, he will hit HR 600 on Sunday, July 25 in the final game of this Yankees home stand.

As seen in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Buster Olney's ESPN blog, YES Network and more, SeatGeek and Hit Tracker have predicted where A-Rod is going to hit his 600th home run. Yankee fans and baseball fans alike have checked out the report, in order to ensure that they witness in person this historic home run, and maybe even catch the ball - if they are sitting in the correct seat or section.

SeatGeek and Hit Tracker has predicted that in Yankee Stadium, the section with the highest probability of the ball landing there is Section 136, and "The Money Seat" - the individual seat with the highest probability of the ball landing there - is Section 135, Row 18, Seat 6. See the full report here!

Meanwhile, SeatGeek has also launched a contest for a chance at free tickets to a game of the winner's choice, up to $100 value. The terms of the contest have changed from the original rules. Now, fans can guess on Twitter or Facebook where they predict which section in Yankee Stadium A-Rod's 600th home run will land in. The winner will be randomly selected amongst all of the correct entries, and will be announced after the milestone HR is hit.

To enter the contest on Twitter, click here to be redirected, and enter your prediction! If you entered the first time around, you will be eligible to win the original contest and will be automatically entered into this contest (you may also have one more guess...). For contest details, check out the original contest post.

Note: you must be following us on Twitter, or "Like" us on Facebook in order to be eligible to win.

As we wait for A-Rod to hit number 600, we have continued to update our data regarding the home run. As of today, there is a 54.3 percent chance that Rodriguez will hit 600 in one of the next three games at Yankee Stadium. While the original prediction was July 25 (which will still occur if he continues to hit one HR every third game), it's looking like it may come sooner. There is a 22.3 percent chance career home run 600 is hit tonight (7/23), a 17.9 percent chance its hit tomorrow, and a 14.2 percent chance its hit on Sunday.

A-Rod will face starting pitchers Brian Bannister, Kyle Davies and Anthony Lerew, respectively. In Rodriguez's career he has faced tonight's starter Bannister ten times, and has three hits - all home runs! Also, A-Rod hit career home run 500 versus tomorrow night's pitcher Kyle Davies. Both of these notions affect the percentage chance that A-Rod will hit 600 during one of the upcoming games.

In the event that he does not hit his 600th in NYC, the Yankees travel to Cleveland to play four games versus the Indians, and then Tampa Bay for three games against the Rays. SeatGeek and Hit Tracker have updated data which looks at the best sections to catch the 600th HR ball, as well as a new "Money Seat" for Progressive Field and Tropicana Field (let us know if you want a sneak peak at the charts).

Yankee fans should hope that A-Rod hits number 600 on this home stand, so that they can witness the historic event, and A-Rod can share the moment with the hometown crowd. If he goes homerless in the next three games, there is only a 7.6 percent chance he does not hit the home run while he is playing in Cleveland or Tampa Bay.

If you want a chance to catch the ball and witness history, but don't have tickets, SeatGeek is the place to get them. Currently on SeatGeek, there are seats available for each of the next three games in both Sections 135 and 136, where you'll have the highest percentage chance to catch A-Rod's 600th. Click on one of the event page links below for ticket deals and also track how Yankees ticket prices are fluctuating on the secondary market:

7/23 Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees

7/24 Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees

7/25 Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees

If you have any questions or data inquiries, don't hesitate to email me at justin@seatgeek.com. Also, don't forget to follow us on Twitter @SeatGeek, "Like" us on Facebook, and stop by SeatGeek for all of your ticket needs.

UPDATE - Alex Rodriguez hit his 600th home run in the first inning of the August 4th game versus the Toronto Blue Jays. After going homerless in 46 at-bats , A-Rod put a 2-0 pitch into Monument Park in center field - SeatGeek and Hit Tracker estimated that there was a 12.8 percent chance that the ball would land there.

Unfortunately for anyone who was hoping to cash in on catching the ball, there are no seats in Monument Park. Reports say that a Yankee Stadium security guard grabbed the ball.

Congratulations to Alex Rodriguez on joining the 600 home run club!

A-Rod’s 500th Home Run Sold for +$100K – His 600th is Approaching and We Calculated Where it is Most Likely to Land…

UPDATE: If you are looking for this report for Progressive Field, check out our latest blog post here ->600th HR Path for Progressive Field: A-Rod Takes His 600th HR Chase to Cleveland

Overview

Alex Rodriguez is currently three home runs from becoming the seventh member of the elite 600 Home Run Club. Given the magnitude of the home run and the value of the ball, we at SeatGeek became particularly interested in where A-Rod's 600th ball will land.

As originally reported in the Wall Street Journal, we teamed up with Hit Tracker, a company that tracks the trajectory of every home run hit in the MLB, to determine not only which sections at Yankee Stadium have the highest probability of the ball landing there, but also the actual seat in the stadium that is the most likely spot for A-Rod to hit number 600 – “The Money Seat”.

SeatGeek also monitored ticket prices on the secondary market for sections that have the highest probability of being the landing zone for the 600th homer. We compared these prices with the average ticket prices of these seats throughout the season to determine a fan’s ROI of buying a ticket in these sections.

A-Rod's 600th Home Run: The Prediction

Hit Tracker tracks the trajectory of every home run in the MLB to accurately project the ball’s distance and landing location. The founder, Greg Rybarczyk, looks at the angle the ball came off the bat, the angle of elevation, bat speed, wind, and other factors to trace each flight path.

Based on the aforementioned variables and A-Rod’s historical home run data across the last 4.5 seasons, Greg was able to create a probability density function to determine a section-by-section analysis for A-Rod’s 600th home run ball landing path. If you want the best chance to catch the ball, we suggest you grab a seat in one of the sections with the highest probability as outlined in the chart below.

The most likely sections at Yankee Stadium are: 1. Section 136 (9% chance) 2. Section 135 (7.8% chance) 3. Section 134 (6.9% chance) 4. Section 235 (4.7% chance) 5. Section 236 (3.9% chance)

A-Rod's 600th Home Run: “The Money Seat”

With their database of Alex Rodriguez's historical home runs, Hit Tracker was able to look at the average path of his home runs to determine where he will hit his 600th home run. Below is the most likely path for A-Rod’s 600th home run in Yankee Stadium, with the ball forecasted to land in Section 135, Row 18, Seat 6.  The fan in the “The Money Seat" has the highest probability of catching the ball! Please note that even though Section 136 has the highest probability by section, the single most likely seat is located in Section 135 – this is primarily due to the fact that Section 136 ranges 4-6 seats wider per row than Section 135.

Yankee Stadium: A-Rod 600th HR Most Likely Landing Spot and Trajectory

Historically, seats in the most likely sections for A-Rod’s 600th to land have gone for significantly above the season average ticket price at Yankee Stadium.  “The Money Seat” section has the highest average ticket prices of the three at 65% over the season average (section 136 is 59% above the season average).  Note: as a % of face value, sections 134, 135, and 136 are 121%, 151%, and 134% on average.

As noted in the chart above, the average ticket price for tickets in Section 136 at Yankee Stadium, the section which has the highest probability of A-Rod's 600th HR ball landing there, is $120.92. While the price of these tickets is far greater than overall season average, the listing price for tickets in Section 136 during the Yankees' upcoming home stand is actually less than the average in 2010. Fortunately for fans who want to not only catch the action, but maybe catch A-Rod's 600th, tickets are listed at an average of $104.57, which is about a 13.5% decrease from the average.

Note: Section 136 Season Avg. represents data prior to the All-Star Game

A-Rod's 600th Home Run: The Timing

After the All-Star break, the Yankees have a nine game home stand starting Friday, July 16 against the Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Angels, and Kansas City Royals respectively. Then, they travel to Cleveland for four games versus the Indians, and Tampa Bay for three games.

Given A-Rod’s home run pace, there is a 40.8% chance he hits it on the next Yankees home stand, and the most likely game is on July 25th at Yankee Stadium versus the Kansas City Royals (7.3% chance). Certainly, both Rodriguez and Yankees fans hope that he will make history at Yankee Stadium. However, we have trajectories and seating maps for Progressive Field in Cleveland and Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay, and we will continue to monitor and report out on those moving forward.

Secondary Ticket Market Reacts to A-Rod’s Impending 600th Home Run

The average ticket prices for games during the Yankees’ upcoming home stand are going for higher than average, given increased demand to witness, and potentially catch, A-Rod’s 600th home run. Note that other factors are driving higher demand including the deaths of Yankees’ legends Bob Sheppard and George Steinbrenner, as well as Old Timer’s Day on Saturday, July 17.

The season average for Yankees ticket prices is $76. Yet, the average ticket price for the series versus the Tampa Bay Rays (from July 16 to July 18) is $94, which is a 24% increase compared to the season average. This average is also 84% higher than the other Rays’ series at Yankee Stadium in 2010. When the Rays came to New York in May, the average ticket price for that series was only $50, and for their series in September, the average is $52.

Ticket prices to see the upcoming Los Angeles Angels series are currently going for at $71.  The prior series was $84 due to an artificial lift from the Yankees’ home opener (excluding the home opener, this series’ prices are up over 100%). The Yankees have only one home series against the Royals in 2010 so we cannot measure how A-Rod’s race to 600 home runs affected ticket prices.

Expected Return on Investment (ROI)

Given the increase in prices on the secondary market to see A-Rod’s 600th, we took this implied incremental spend and calculated ROIs at various resale prices. Note that this analysis is independent of game timing as actual game likelihoods will be in constant flux.

Sample listing in the most likely section for the upcoming home stand on SeatGeek.

Assuming you purchase tickets for the 600th HR game, the charts below outline your expected ROI. As a reference point, there were several listings in Section 136 for between $80 and $160 for the upcoming Yankees home stand (as of 7/19/2010).

Expected ROI explained: seats in the most likely section (136) have averaged $121 this season, though average prices will be higher as A-Rod approaches 600. Accordingly, we have presented a data table with ROI calculations starting at $135 (just over a 10% premium to the season average) through $175 (just under a 50% premium). This ticket price range is then measured against projected resale prices for the ball based on a likely range estimated by SCP Auctions and A-Rod’s 500th HR ball, which sold for $103,000. Incremental spend (i.e. amount over the season average spent for that game) is then measured against expected value (i.e. resale price multiplied by the % probability per seat) to determine expected ROI. So this means that if you purchased a ticket in section 136 for $155 and the ball sells for $125,000, expected ROI is 79%.

Sample calculation: 9% chance for section 136 / 184 seats in section 136 x $125,000 resale price of the ball = $61.14 expected gain. $155 ticket price - $120.92 section average prior to break = $34.08 incremental spend. $61.14 expected gain - $34.08 cost = $27.06. $27.06/$34.08 = Expected Value ROI of 79%. Realized ROI = ($125,000 - $155) / $155 = 80,545%.

Summary

• Maximize your odds of cashing in on A-Rod’s 600th home run by purchasing tickets in left field, specifically sections 134-136 and 235-236
• A-Rod is most likely to hit his 600th home run into section 135, row 18, seat 6 – “The Money Seat”
• Sections 134-136 historically go for over 40% above the overall season average ticket price – current listings for the upcoming home stand are between $66-$193
• Due to section size differences, section 136 is the most likely section even though “The Money Seat” is in section 135
• If the ball does not land in a seat, the most likely locations in order are: visitors' bullpen (LF), Monument Park, yankees’ bullpen (RF), and the ambulance tunnel
• A-Rods home run ball is expected to sell for between $100,000 and $150,000 at auction based on discussions with SCP Auctions
• There is a 40.8% chance A-Rod hits his 600th on the upcoming Yankees home stand, making this the most likely stretch for the milestone to occur
• Tickets for the Yankees upcoming home stand are going for a premium compared to prior and future series’ averages at Yankee Stadium – implying an incremental spend for witnessing A-Rod’s 600th HR game
• Assuming a resale price of $100,000, if you purchased “The Money Seat” for $145, your expected ROI based on incremental spend is 227%
• Tickets for the July 25th Royals versus Yankees game in section 136 have a positive expected ROI if purchased for less than $125 – even when factoring in the likelihood that he does not hit the home run that game
• The person that catches the ball will likely turn a profit of over $100,000 dollars if they decide to sell it at auction

If you are attending a Yankees game this July, best of luck catching the ball. Hopefully we were able to make your ticket buying experience a little bit more interesting and potentially profitable!

Enter Now--> Redirect to Twitter to Tweet this and enter! or Redirect to Facebook to 'Like' and enter!

A-Rod Contest Background

With Alex Rodriguez only three home runs away from the milestone home run number 600, we at SeatGeek have taken a particular interest in predicting where the ball may land. The home run ball may be worth upwards of $100,000, but also makes an invaluable souvenir for any Yankees fan that catches it.

Given the desire for the ball, we have reached out to our friends at Hit Tracker to get a specific prediction, down to the very seat, of where the most likely spot for Alex Rodriguez to hit home run number 600 in Yankee Stadium is. (For more in depth coverage of the prediction, check back on the SeatGeek Blog soon).

We have coined the aforementioned seat "The Money Seat". If you want the best chance to catch A-Rod's 600th HR ball, you need to be sitting in this seat.

What seat is it, you ask? Well, that's up to you guys to guess, at first...

Contest/Rules

Here is the contest: follow us on Twitter @SeatGeek and in a mention to us, give us your predictions, OR Like us on facebook and post your prediction on our wall. We are operating under the assumption that A-Rod hits number 600 in this upcoming nine game home stand, so we want to hear your predictions for which section in Yankee Stadium 'The Money Seat" is in. In other words, which section has the highest probability of the ball landing there.

This is what you must tweet (fill in the blank with your actual guess): Entered @SeatGeek A-Rod 600th HR contest for a free tee / tickets*. My "Money Seat" prediction is in Section [ ] http://ow.ly/2bnFu

Enter Now--> Redirect to Twitter to Tweet this and enter! or Redirect to Facebook to 'Like' and enter!

Here are the sections you can choose from (in number order):

Section 103          Section 132          Section 201          Section 206          Section 235

Section 104          Section 133          Section 202          Section 207          Section 236

Section 105          Section 134          Section 203          Section 233A        Section 237

Section 106          Section 135          Section 204          Section 233B        Section 238

Section 107          Section 136          Section 205          Section 234          Section 239

The winner will be randomly selected amongst the correct section guesses, and will win an Alex Rodriguez player tee (or MLB player tee of their choice, if they don't want an A-Rod one)! Note, if we reach 100 participants, we will give away $100 worth of MLB tickets or concert tickets of your choosing.

You must Like us on Facebook or follow us on Twitter in order to win. No duplicate entries. The contest will run from now until Thursday at midnight, PT.

Depending on the popularity of this contest, we may then hold another contest asking for your predictions for which section the ball actually lands in (as opposed to which section has the highest probability of the ball landing there). That contest will take place from time TBD until A-Rod hits his 600th home run.

In the case that Alex Rodriguez doesn't hit number 600 during the Yankees home stand, the contest will be altered for participants to guess the section, row and seat in the away parks. The Yankees play at Progressive Field in Cleveland and Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay before returning back to New York.

Good luck, spread the word, and don't forget to visit SeatGeek for all of your concert and sporting event needs!

* We must have 100 entries for tickets to come into play

One entry each - No duplicates