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A-Rod Finally Hit His 600th HR, Fans Should Send Him the Bill

by Justin on August 5th, 2010 No Comments

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In case you were buried under a rock for the past few weeks, Alex Rodriguez had been one home run away from becoming the seventh player in MLB history to hit 600 career home runs for what felt like forever. It had been 46 at-bats, and twelve games, but A-Rod finally hit 600, on August 4th versus the Blue Jays. His home run landed in Monument Park, so no fans were able to catch the ball, and potentially sell it for at least $100,000.

During A-Rod's 600th home run chase, SeatGeek and Hit Tracker had predicted where he may hit the historic ball. While the home run did not end up landing in "The Money Seat" in Yankee Stadium, it did land in the area in which it was estimated that there was a 12.8 percent chance that the ball would land there. Click here to see the full report for Yankee Stadium!

All the while, thousands of fans in New York, Cleveland and Tampa Bay had taken trips out to the stadium to see the Yankees play, and hopefully see and/or catch A-Rod's 600th home run.

As reported by CNBC's Darren Rovell (follow him on Twitter @DarrenRovell1) and calculated by SeatGeek, fans had spent more than $1.2 million more than they would have to see the Yankees play during A-Rod's milestone chase, which began on July 22 when he hit 599 - and that number doesn't even include the Yankees most recent games versus the Blue Jays!

arod-total-money-spent

Note: these figures were calculated by multiplying the additional secondary ticket market volume by the average ticket prices, to get the additional money spent on tickets, plus the non-ticket ballpark expenses as determined by Team Marketing Report. These numbers do not include the games in which the Blue Jays played at Yankee Stadium.

As the number of fans that has purchased Yankees tickets on the secondary market has increased, so too has the attendance for recent Yankees games, both at home and away.

According to ESPN.com, the average attendace for Yankees home games in 2010 is 46,094 (as of 8/4). However, the average attendance for series versus the Kansas City Royals from July 22 - 25 was 47,578. While this attendance increase is only a three percent increase, it is still compelling given the Yankees' opponents. Historically, Royals games are not as popular, given the Royals mediocrity, and attendance is generally down from the average. Yet, as A-Rod was going for 600, the attendance was higher than normal, as fans wanted to see him hit the home run.

At the Yankees away games, attendance increased as well. At Progressive Field in Cleveland, the season average attendance is only 17,499, while the series average attendance for the Indians is 28,015. At Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay, three consecutive games in a row were sold out for the first time in Rays history! The attendance for all three games was 36,973, while the season average is 22,560.

Undoubtedly, when the Yankees come to town attendance tends to rise, as they are a very desirable opponent to watch. However, the large increases (60 percent increase at Progressive Field; 63 percent increase at the Trop) were certainly driven up by A-Rod's milestone home run chase.

For more information, or if you have any inquiries, feel free to email me at justin[at]seatgeek.com. Also, don't forget to follow us on Twitter @SeatGeek and 'Like' us on Facebook!

Alex Rodriguez, Still Stuck at 599, Goes for 600 at Yankee Stadium… Again!

by Justin on August 2nd, 2010 No Comments

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The New York Yankees and Alex Rodriguez wrapped up their road trip Sunday with a disappointing loss to the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Equally as disappointing (especially for Rays fans looking to cash in on catching A-Rod's 600th home run ball) was that A-Rod was not in the starting line up, and struck out in his only at bat. He's still stuck at 599 career home runs, yet he heads back to Yankee Stadium hoping to hit the milestone home run in front of the home crowd.

For SeatGeek and Hit Tracker, we're back to square one. Our original prediction for where A-Rod may hit his 600th home run was for Yankee Stadium. "The Money Seat" is Section 135, Row 18, Seat 6, and the most likely section in which A-Rod may hit the ball is Section 136. Click here to see the full report!

For everyone that only took a guess at Yankee Stadium, you have lucked out now that you have a second chance. To everyone else, you should take a guess at the section the ball will land for a shot at free stuff.
Enter Now--> Redirect to Twitter to Tweet this and enter! or Redirect to Facebook to 'Like' and enter!

Meanwhile, baseball fans nationwide are wondering the same thing we are: when is A-Rod actually going to hit 600? According to the chart below, there is a 22 percent chance it occurs during tonight's game, and an 86 percent chance it occurs during this homestand, which consists of three games against the Toronto Blue Jays and four versus the Boston Red Sox.

A-Rod HR Projection 8.2.2010

It's been 43 plate appearances (38 official at-bats) and seven games since A-Rod hit 599 on July 22 versus the Kansas City Royals. So, 600 has to come soon, right?

For many, A-Rod's coverage of 600 has been frustrating, since 600 is really only a milestone since it's a round number. People have been asking what makes 600 different than 601, or 650, or any of the other home runs A-Rod hits in the future.

We spoke with our friend Ross over at NYY Stadium Insider, a Yankees fan advocacy blog, to get his thoughts on this whole situation. Ross, who is a Yankees season ticket holder and diehard fan thinks that the allure of the situation is due in large part to the money involved with A-Rod's 600th home run. Rodriguez's 500th HR ball sold for $103,000, and it is reasonable to expect a similar resale price for 600.

For fans like Ross, whose seats are in the upper deck, the story is fun to follow, but he doesn't care too much about 600 itself, since he has no chance of catching the ball in his seats. He knows that A-Rod has better milestones to look forward to, such as hitting career home run 757 and breaking Barry Bonds' home run record, and so the most special thing about this home run is its value.

Unfortunately, Yankee Stadium isn't quite as fan friendly of a stadium for catching 600 as other stadiums, especially when compared to Progressive Field, where the Yankees recently played. The problem with Yankee Stadium is that there are no standing room only areas to hang out and watch the game, unlike the Home Run Porch at Progressive (in our interview with ball snagging expert Zack Hample, we discussed this in more detail). Also, strict security rules prevent fans from walking around the stadium, and from catching the glimpse of the game from either Section 135 or 136 (where tickets are $90 face value), which are the top two most likely sections for A-Rod's 600th HR ball to land.

For fans, if you want to have the best chance at catching A-Rod's 600th and cashing in, you'll have to make sure you get a seat in one of the most likely sections, as Ross explains in one of his blog posts. "There is no freeloading at Yankee Stadium," he says.

The average ticket price for the Yankees-Blue Jays series is $63, which means fans are willing to pay around $63 for tickets to see the Yanks play. Yet, average listing price for the three game series is only $49, including two tickets in Section 136 for $77 each (81 percent of face value)! Click on a game below to see SeatGeek's ticket deals:

  • Monday, August 2nd - Yankees vs. Blue Jays
  • Tuesday, August 3rd - Yankees vs. Blue Jays
  • Wednesday, August 4th - Yankees vs. Blue Jays

When comparing this series' ticket prices to that of the other two series in which the Blue Jays played at Yankee Stadium, this series' prices are less than the other series, and much less than the Yankees' series average. As previously mentioned, this series' average ticket price is $63, which is the same price as tickets for the series in September, and less than the first time the Blue Jays came to town in July.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Ticket Prices

Presumably, few expected A-Rod's home run chase to last this long. As a result, the price of tickets for the Blue Jays games have not spiked, and fans can still get reasonably priced tickets to witness the milestone and maybe even catch the ball - if he ever hits it!

When A-Rod actually hits his 600th career home run, best of luck catching the ball. Be sure to email justin[at]seatgeek.com with any inquiries, and don't forget to follow us on Twitter @SeatGeek.

Special thanks to Ross from NYY Stadium Insider for his thoughts on A-Rod's 600th home run. Ross can be found on Twitter @StadiumInsider.

Next Stop Tampa Bay: A-Rod’s 600th HR Prediction for Tropicana Field!

by Justin on July 30th, 2010 6 Comments

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UPDATE - Alex Rodriguez just hit career home run number 600 at Yankee Stadium versus the Toronto Blue Jays on August 4th. The drive was to straight away centerfield and landed in Monument Park, where there are no seats for fans.

Currently, the Rays are in a battle for first with the Yankees in the AL East. Undoubtedly, the Rays are fortunate that A-Rod didn't hit the home run during their recent series. Yet, fans in Tampa Bay and New York were unfortunately unable to cash in on the ball either, which was estimated to resale at more than $100,000.

Overview

Alex Rodriguez is still one home run away from 600 career home runs and we have the updated landing spot prediction for Tropicana Field! While he was three home runs away from joining the 600 Home Run Club, SeatGeek teamed with Hit Tracker and released a report in which the most likely section in Yankee Stadium where A-Rod may hit the home run was predicted, as well as the most likely seat – “The Money Seat”. Indians fans, however, were not able to witness history in Progressive Field, as A-Rod did not hit 600 in Cleveland. Now, the Yankees and A-Rod head to Tampa Bay, where they play the Rays at Tropicana Field for three games. We wanted to provide the fans with an updated prediction for Tropicana Field, where there's a 54.3 percent chance HR number 600 will occur during one of the three games. Now we have the much anticipated report updated for Tropicana Field!

We have also included Rays ticket prices (check out this link to access our new Fan Sentiment profiles, and track A-Rod's impact daily) for games during the Yankees versus Rays series, and a comparison between the prices of this series versus the price of tickets for the other series in which the Yankees play in Tampa (for reference, see the original Yankee Stadium report here, as well as the Progressive field report).

A-Rod’s 600th Home Run: The Prediction

Using the same methodology that he used before for Yankee Stadium and Progressive Field, Hit Tracker’s founder Greg Rybarczyk was able to predict the most likely sections in Tropicana Field, based on A-Rod’s scatter plot over the past 4.5 seasons, as well as the sizes of each section in the outfield. Again, if you want a shot at catching the milestone ball, we suggest grabbing a seat in one of these sections below that have the highest percentage chance of the ball landing there!


The most likely sections at Tropicana Field are: 1. Section 145 (13.0% chance) 2. Section 143 (11.7%) 3. Section 147 (11.7%) 4. Section 141 (10.6%) 5. Section 148 (6.3%)

A-Rod’s 600th Home Run: “The Money Seat”

Hit Tracker was able to predict an average path of flight for A-Rod’s home run balls while using their database of his home runs. The ball that travels along that pass was to land in Section 135, Row 18, Seat 6 in Yankee Stadium and Section 181, Row J, the aisle seat between sections 180 and 181 in Progressive Field. While the path concluded in an aisle seat in Progressive Field, "The Money Seat" for Tropicana Field is in the middle of a row - it's Section 143, Row BB, Seat 9 (Note: in Section 143, the rows start at T, so Row BB is actually the ninth row). Please note that even though Section 145 has the highest probability by section, the single most likely seat is located in Section 143.

A-Rod 600th flight path tropicana

Tropican Field Left Bleachers - money seat

The Secondary Ticket Market Reacts

For this series, the average ticket price on the secondary ticket market is much higher than the season average for tickets at Tropicana Field. Undoubtedly, part of that is due to the fact that the Rays are playing the Yankees, and ticket prices for games when the Yankees are in town are higher league-wide (track Yankees ticket prices here). Yet it is also due to the fact that fans attending the game may have the opportunity to witness, and potentially catch, Alex Rodriguez's 600th home run. The price for this series is 42 percent higher than the price of tickets for the series in April. Check out tickets for this series' games below:

  • Friday, July 30, 2010 at 7:10 pm - Yankees at Rays
  • Saturday, July 31, 2010 at 7:10 pm - Yankees at Rays
  • Sunday, August 1, 2010 at 1:40 pm - Yankees at Rays

tampa bay rays ticket prices

As the Yankees' series in Cleveland winded down and it became more likely that A-Rod would come to Tampa Bay still one home run away from 600, demand for tickets for this series, which begins on July 30, increased greatly. The day before the series began, Rodriguez still had one game in Cleveland to hit 600 - on July 29 the average listing price for tickets for all three games was $63. On July 30, it was known that A-Rod would definitely be coming to Tampa with 599 career home runs, and listing prices jumped 34 percent, to $84!

rays listing ticket price increase

A-Rod’s 600th Home Run: The Timing

The Yankees have three games in a row versus Tampa Bay, before they return to New York for a seven game home stand versus the Blue Jays and the Red Sox. It is likely that he will hit one in the next three road games – specifically there is a 22.3 percent chance he hits number 600 during the first game in Tampa, a 17.9 percent chance during the second game, and a 14.2 percent chance during the final game (Note: these percentages are as of 7/30; percentages for the following games increase after every game that he does not hit a home run). In the event that he does not hit a home run in Cleveland, we will have an updated report for Yankee Stadium.  For Yankee fans, hang onto hope, there is now a 45.7 percent chance that he will hit his 600th home run in New York in front of the home crowd.

arod percent likelihood by game

Summary

  • For the best shot at cashing in on A-Rod’s 600th home run, try to get tickets in Sections 145, 143, or 147
  • “The Money Seat” is located in Section 143, Row BB, Seat 9
  • The CF area in Tropicana Field has a 16.9% chance of A-Rod's 600th HR ball landing there, although there is no seating or standing area there
  • Tickets for this series are averaging $75 per ticket, which is a 42% increase in price from when the Yankees played at Tropicana in April, and a 70% increase in price compared to the average ticket price for tickets throughout the entire 2010 season
  • As of July 29 (before it was known A-Rod would come to Tampa with 599 HRs), average listing price for tickets for this series were $63 (253% of face value). As of July 30 (when it was certain that A-Rod would be going for 600 in Tampa), average listing price jumped to $84 (320% of face value). The biggest jump was for Game One; $59 on 7/29 to $99 on 7/30 - a 68% increase
  • There is a 54.3% chance A-Rod hits his 600th home run during the upcoming series in Tampa Bay, and thus a 45.7% chance he returns home to Yankee Stadium still stuck at 599
  • A-Rods home run ball is expected to sell for between $100,000 and $150,000 at auction based on discussions with SCP Auctions
  • The person that catches the ball will likely turn a profit of over $100,000 if they decide to sell it at auction

Best of luck catching the ball. For further inquiries, reach out to justin[at]seatgeek.com.

About SeatGeek
SeatGeek.com is the only site that forecasts how sports and concert ticket prices move on the secondary ticket market and it allows fans to search multiple sites, discover ticket deals, and find sold out tickets. Follow us on Twitter @SeatGeek!

When A-Rod Will Hit 600, TO to the Bengals, and Other happenings on the Sports Blog

by Chad Burgess on July 29th, 2010 No Comments

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SeatGeek logo smallLately, we have been focusing most of our writing efforts on SeatGeek.com/Blog however we still have some great content being published at our Sports Blog.  Below are a few of the stories you may have missed:

  • When Will A-Rod Hit Career Home Run Number 600? Numbers Show NYC Still Has a Chance… - this article shows the percent likelihood of A-Rod hitting his home run in each of the upcoming Yankees' series
  • Prices Leap for Bengals Following Terrell Owens Acquisition - here we looked at some early signs that Owens might provide a spark to Bengals ticket prices in the secondary ticket market
  • “A-Rod’s 600th HR” Contest – An Update - don't forget that we still have a fun contest going on - guess the section where you think A-Rod will hit his 600th - it's fun, we gave you the cheat sheets and you have a shot at winning FREE stuff
  • The Cardinals-Cubs Rivalry: A Ticket Data Driven Analysis - a look at the Cardinals vs Cubs in our ongoing 'Rivalry Series'

Oh and check back tomorrow for our updated report on where A-Rod is most likely to hit his 600th home run in Tropicana Field.  Get in touch with us on Twitter if you want a sneak peak at the data.

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